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With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.
Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown
In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day.
Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election
The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election.
What To Expect in 2025
If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. The housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year. And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.
It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.
