Top 5 HYPER-LOCAL 2026 Predictions & Takeaways - Skagit County

Earlier this month, my office hosted Matthew Gardner where he shared clarity, context and hyper-local insight during a time when many people are craving grounded information. Thank you to Matthew Gardner for sharing his expertise, and to those of you who joined the event live. If you weren’t able to attend, I’m glad you’re here as below are my key takeaways, with a deeper focus on Skagit County.

The Big Picture: A Calmer Economic Backdrop Than the Headlines Suggest

Before diving into the hyper-local data, Matthew spent time grounding us in the broader economic picture. While uncertainty remains, there are no indicators pointing toward a recession. Inflation has cooled significantly from post-pandemic highs and is now hovering around the mid-2% range, GDP remains positive, and the Federal Reserve is already in a rate-cutting cycle. Matthew anticipates additional cuts later this year, which should continue to ease pressure on borrowing costs. In short, while the economy is adjusting, it is doing so from a position of relative stability rather than distress.

Why Inventory Remains Tight: The “Lock-In” Effect

One of the most important dynamics shaping today’s housing market is what Matthew refers to as the “lock-in effect.” A large majority of homeowners still hold mortgage rates below 5%, with many well below that. This has kept would-be sellers in place, limiting inventory and helping prices remain stable. Looking ahead, Matthew expects 2026 to be the year when more homeowners choose to align their housing with life changes rather than stay anchored to a lower rate. If this shift is paired with gradually declining interest rates, it could create a healthier flow of inventory and opportunity for both buyers and sellers.

A Quick Note on the Condo Market

Matthew also highlighted that the condo market continues to behave differently than single-family homes. Higher inventory levels and softer pricing persist, particularly in buildings with higher dues or less-healthy homeowners’ associations. That said, new condo construction is slowing, which may support well-managed resale condos over time. As always, location, HOA strength, and long-term planning matter greatly in this segment of the market.

Below, you’ll find my Top 5 HYPER-LOCAL takeaways on the specific trends impacting the Skagit County’s housing market in 2026.

If you would like a link to the full presentation slides for Whatcom & Skagit Counties please let me know by emailing me HERE.

Skagit County:

Inventory: Expected to grow more meaningfully, giving buyers increased selection
Sales: Forecast to improve modestly as affordability and inventory align more favorably
Prices: Anticipated to experience slow, steady growth rather than sharp increases

Matthew highlighted Skagit County as an area that continues to benefit from relative affordability, especially for buyers priced out of neighboring markets.

Final Thoughts

Matthew summarized the market as one that is adjusting, not unraveling.

Prices are not falling
Demand has not disappeared
The market is becoming more balanced and less frantic

For homeowners, this means long-term equity remains intact.
For buyers, it means more opportunity to move thoughtfully rather than urgently.

If you’d like help interpreting how these trends apply to your specific neighborhood, property type, or goals, I’m always happy to walk through the data with you.

Top 5 HYPER-LOCAL 2026 Predictions & Takeaways – Skagit County

Final Thoughts